La Nia conditions can have varying effects on weather patterns around the world. This has also occurred in August 1963 & February 1905. The snowpack in the Upper Colorado River Basin was at 133 percent of the 30-year historical average as of Monday, and sits at 101 percent of what the basin has received on average through an . Detailed Phoenix Weather Forecast for November 2022 - day/night temperatures, precipitations - World-Weather.info. The table below shows the breakdown for highs, low maximums and high minimums. There should be enough snow on the ground still if you're looking to hit the slopes, but any further lashing will (hopefully) hold off for a little while longer. As always, stay tuned toArizona Weather Forcefor official forecasts and updates on weather across Arizona and if it says like page below, hit the button and get future updates. My model is showing drier than normal conditions for most of California, majorly drier than normal for Southern California than Northern. OnlyInYourState may earn compensation through affiliate links in this article. The Winter seasonal forecast for the area, issued November 18th, called for a 41% chance of above normal temperatures & a 48% chance of below normal precipitation. Which City Is the Worst for Fall Allergies This Year? No matter how you like your winter, youre sure to find it in Arizona. I think we do a pretty good job, Geiger said. For only the third time since 1910, no temperature records were set during the first three months of the year. The average Summer temperature of 88.3 is 1.2 above normal and is well shy of the two warmest Summers on record (90.0 in 2020 & 89.9 in 1994). 47.9 Degrees C is 118.2 degrees F. Wow! Expect a few rainy days but usually not more than 3. In central Arizona, its mild and fair, and sometimes rainy. The last seven days of the month was dry with below normal high and low temperatures. Best for planning. Outside of work, you can likely find her curled up on the sofa with a hot cup of coffee, watching a crime TV show or scary movie. Los Angeles had near 9.50 of rainfall during the month alone with a normal amount of 2.48, which is unprecedented and will be the third highest amount during the month of December since records began, only behind 1989 and 2010. The story is much different in the Catalina and Rincon mountains where between 4" and 10" of precipitation has been recorded so far this water year. Your California Privacy Rights / Privacy Policy. According to The Farmer's Almanac, Arizona's 2021-2022 winter season will bring along a "polar coaster" with temperature swings lasting well into March of 2022. The 30-year-old Musgrove is coming off the best season of his career and a stellar postseason run that included 7.0 dominant innings in a winner-take-all Wild Card Game 3 against the Mets in New York. March climate data across southeast Arizona, Spring climate data across southeast Arizona. According to the Farmers' Almanac winter weather forecast for Arizona, the 2022-2023 winter season will be a milder affair this year - though drier than average, too. Click on the image to the right to see how 2022 compared to the historical record. The 1981-2010 climate normal period was used from the late 2011 to early 2021. On social media:Find us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and YouTube. The International airport, which is the official recording spot in Tucson, recorded 0.23" which ranks as the 38th wettest June on record, tied with 1980. In a couple of words: its nice! Temperature extremes for the month ranged from a high of 104 on the 6th and 30th to a low of 70 on the 23rd. The average Fall temperature of 71.3 is 1.0 below the 1991-2020 normal. The last March to record above normal rainfall was in 2004 when 1.12" was recorded. . Or rather when will it finally feel like fall? October climate data across southeast Arizona. Meanwhile, the southern U.S. is expected to have a. A couple of weak weather systems moved across the area on the 28th through 30th bringing the area another shot of valley rain and mountain snow. NWS Tucson Arizona. Local News Sports Politics Opinion For Subscribers . With that in mind, let's dig into the month-by-month details and follow up with some of the factors driving this forecast. The state's smoky skies were caused by a wildfire in Arizona, but the National Weather service said Monday's smoke and heat will be gone Tuesday. The widely followed youtube weather channel, is calling for a mixed bag of weather this upcoming winter season. Click on hotel for more details. Looking ahead into February The Climate Prediction Center forecasts a 47% chance of above normal temperatures and a 45% chance of below normal precipitation. AccuWeather long-range forecasters are predicting that 40 to 50 inches will accumulate in the city, around the average snowfall amount of 49.2 inches. The forecast for precipitation is a 33% chance that they will be up below normal and a 33% chance that they will end up above normal. Here in the Valley, showers will be off and on throughout overnight. Enter any city, zip or place. That contrasts sharply with a likely warmer-than-usual February along the northern Gulf Coast, including Florida. If it says liked, dont hit it because thats unfollowing and you wont get updates at AZWF page on your feed. Youll definitely want to check out some of our favorite, We say absolutely! She attended college in the Houston area and changed her major twice (psychology, computer science, and finally criminal justice) before taking a leap of faith and dropping out to pursue a career in freelance writing. With record to near-record heat blistering Colorado on Monday, you might think the smoke in the air is from a Colorado wildfire. Sorry, the location you searched for was not found. We are going to show you their forecast for the upcoming winter, but first, a warning. Katie Lawrence is a Southeast Texas native who graduated 18th in her high school class with a GPA of 4.25. Climate Predictions 6-10 Days 8-14 Day Climate Probability Official 30-Day Forecast The above maps are from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center. According to the CPC, there is a tendency for back-to-back La Nia winters which increases forecaster confidence in the probability that this coming winter will indeed be another La Nia winter. Temperature extremes ranged from a high of 105 on May 15th to a low of 33 on March 8th. Colder air and blocking weather pattern often develop when the polar vortex is weak. Essentially, the formula uses sunspot activity andthe effect the moon has on the earth to be able to predict weather about two years in advance. Take control of your data. Rainfall amounts across the metro during the first three months of the hydrologic water year has ranged from 1.10" to 3.50". The last year in which Tucson waited until April to set/tied a record temperature was back in 2010. Love Arizona? CLICK HERE TO LEARN MORE AND SIGN-UP If you're looking forward to snow, mark January on your calendars. WeatherTAB helps you plan activities on days with the least risk of rain. Spring ended on a streak of 63 consecutive days with no rain being recorded at the International airport. Click on the images below for larger view. There were five days that recorded freezing low temperatures at the airport which is up from the three that occurred in the previous winter but down five from the 1991-2020 normal period. Expect a few rainy days but usually not more than 3. The seasonal average dew point value was 19. You can go traditional with it and check out some truly delightful Christmas towns in Arizona, or you can rent a cabin in the woods and forget about life for a while as you watch snow gently fall. The previous two occurrences were in 1984 & 2010. Last year, the Almanac predicted many of the 2021-2022 winter storms, most notably: the early-season nor'easter in the end of October, and the unusual blizzard in the last week of April (in parts of Montana, Wyoming, and the Dakotas). This is tied with 2008 for the lowest Spring average dating back to 1946. Even as we swelter through the last stretch of summer's "dog days," the upcoming winter outlooks for the 2022-2023 season from the Farmers' Almanac and The Old Farmer's Almanac are enough to send shivers down one's spine. CLIMAS_report_2022_final.pdf Southwest Climate Outlook October 2022 The drought classification for the area stood at D2 (Severe Drought). According to the Farmers' Almanac (in publication since 1818), states in . If youre planning to visit Arizona in the near future, we highly recommend that you review the 14 day weather forecast for Arizona before you arrive. Apr. The stream has the latest alert links, a map of alerts and where, and articles. This fall, the almanac forecasted lower-than-usual temperatures across the United States, with cold temperatures taking over for good in late November. RELATED: Heat-related deaths hit historic high in 2021. Above normal moisture values for early October combined with several atmospheric disturbances moving across the area produced isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms on a daily basis during the first ten days of the month. Precipitation: Equal chances use the map provided below. WeatherTAB Flagstaff, Arizona Help C F. The water year is below normal since October 1st at 6.16" which ranks as the 17th driest water year to date with one month left in the water year calendar. Rainfall amounts, using several sources like rainlog.org, the Pima County Regional Flood Control District gages and CoCoRaHS, has varied widely across the metro area. The forecast panned out well with Spring 2022 coming in warmer and drier than normal. Arizona winters aren't known for being white or cold, but this is getting ridiculous. The Tucson International airport, the official recording location in Tucson, recorded 4.94" which ranks as the 46th driest monsoon on record. This is the 7th June on record in which the monthly low temperature did not fall below 65. Two-thirds of climatological Fall is in the books and 2022 ranks as the 15th warmest & 56th driest on record with one month left to go. The International airport, which is the official recording spot in Tucson, was on the dry side as just over one and a third of an inch /1.34"/ was recorded. For the first time since 2004, the average Fall temperature was below normal. According to the CPC, there is a 66% chance that La Nia conditions could last from November 2021 to January 2022. The second Pacific storm of the month moved across the area on the 12th bringing with it widespread valley rain and mountain snow. Drought, wildfires, heat and monsoon storms: Arizona has seen its fair share of severe weather. With stories from American West, Western Washington State, King County (Wash.), Seattle, Pacific Northwest, Eastern Washington State, Sports, Washington State University, College Sports. The periodical says it. But if it weakens, that could spell a colder winter for some. The wather in Arizona in January can vary between cold and nice weather days. Free Long Range Weather Forecast for Flagstaff, Arizona. AccuWeather's winter forecast. And that would bring a significantly colder risk to much of the northern U.S. this winter, according to Crawford. Copyright 2021 Scripps Media, Inc. All rights reserved. Since it was a colder one than earlier in the month, snow levels at times reached down to the valley floor with some light snow occurring on the east side of the metro area. The Farmers' Almanac predicts winter will be wild in much of the United States, but pretty average in Utah. It is certainly a possibility with the threat of another La Nia on the horizon. The monthly average temperature of 54.0 is 1.0 ABOVE normal and ranks as the 25th warmest December on record, tied with 1995. The yearly rainfall total of 6.14" at the Tucson International airport, the official location in Tucson, ranks as the 15th driest January through October period on record. Officially, 7.41" of rain was recorded at the International airport which ranks, in the 128 year climatic record period (1895-2022) for Tucson, as the 13th driest year on record. Antarctic Winter of 2022 - Coldest on Record. Gone are the ridiculously hot days, replaced with pleasant, mild ones perfect for hitting the trails in places you generally shouldnt hike in the summer (Phoenix comes to mind). Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks. The yearly rainfall total of 6.14" at the Tucson International airport, the official location in Tucson, ranks as the 10th driest January through November period on record. Here are some temperature highlights for the month: The monthly average temperature of 61.7 is two-tenths of a degree below normal and ranks as the 24th warmest March on record, tied with 2019. Wildfires send smoke as temperatures near 100 degrees. The seasonal average temperature of 71.0 goes into the record books as the 5th warmest Spring on record. What are some fun things to do in the winter in Arizona? In December, the best chance of at least somewhat colder than usual temperatures is expected in the East, from the Great Lakes to the Northeast and mid-Atlantic states. The monthly average temperature of 85.8 is 1.1 BELOW normal ranks as the 38th warmest August on record. A generally colder than usual winter is expected in the northern tier of states. Alaska through Central and Northern Canada to Greenland. The first five months were rather dry with the airport only recording 0.67" or 2" below normal. July climate data across southeast Arizona. The first day of winter and the shortest day of the year, officially arrives on December 21, 2022, but that doesn't always mean that the cold temperatures and snow storms will wait until then. The last day of 2022 was dry with afternoon temperatures in the upper 60's to lower 70's. The annual monsoon was not quite as active as it was in 2021 with rainfall amounts ranging widely across the metro area from 3" to 8" with localized higher amounts up to 12". Check out some of our favorite places to go camping in Arizona for inspiration. Meanwhile, the Southwest and much of the Rockies are most likely to see December end up warmer than usual. Rainfall at the Tucson International airport, the official location in Tucson, of 0.67" is 1.81" BELOW normal & ranks as the 9th driest January through April period on record. The MAIN PAGE of this website has every alert/article issued at current. The airport two-day total of 0.74" ranks as the 3rd wettest New Year's Eve/Day on record. What is the average temperature in Arizona in January? Our outlook has the highest confidence of a cold February in the Northern Plains and upper Midwest. Additionally the airport monthly total extended the streak of below normal rainfall for March to "18" straight. Rainfall amounts across the metro area, using several sources like rainlog.org, the Pima County Regional Flood Control District gages and CoCoRaHS, were mostly below a third of an inch (0.33") with isolated spots recording up to 1.00". Rainfall amounts across the metro area, using several sources like rainlog.org, the Pima County Regional Flood Control District gages and CoCoRaHS, ranged widely across the metro area from 0.50" to 3" with localized totals up to 3.75". But there is a new ocean anomaly emerging that will also play its part. Rainfall amounts, using several sources like rainlog.org, the Pima County Regional Flood Control District gages and CoCoRaHS, varied widely across the metro area as is usually the case during the summer thunderstorm season. This is because the jet stream, or storm track, stays to the north of our area, essentially making for wetter-than-normal conditions across the Pacific Northwest, but drier than normal conditions for the Desert Southwest. That means that La Nina is NOT controlling the current weather pattern for the season thus far. It begins just at the backend of Arizonas monsoon season, which officially comes to a close on Sept. 30. NWS Tucson Arizona520 North Park Ave, Suite 304Tucson, AZ 85719(520) 670-6526Comments? 2022 monsoon season in Arizona expected to be above-normal - good news for state agriculture . A Strong 2024 La Nina and a new "Cold Pacific Ocean Phase" will usher in Dangerous . The average wind speed was 8.1 mph which is slightly below the average was 8.2 mph. One record temperature was set during the month. For us across the Southwest, La Nia typically brings drier-than-normal conditions during the winter. The first month of 2023 might start out a little mild on the country's eastern half, but it's expected to be stormy and very, very cold by the middle and end of the month. In other words, it will be cold in the area. By weather.com meteorologists October 13, 2022 At a Glance A generally colder than usual winter is expected in the northern tier of states. Temperature extremes for the month ranged from a high 94 on the 3rd to a low of 43 on the 25th. November 2022 to October 2023 Winter will be warmer than normal, with above-normal precipitation. February 08, 2021 : Atmospheric conditions and temperature F: RealFeel F: Atmospheric HOT TOPIC: 2021-2022 Seasonal Weather Forecast Released For Southwestern United States; Detailed Maps and Discussion Within, November 29, 2021 December climate data across southeast Arizona, Winter climate data across southeast Arizona. Winter 2022-2023 should be dominated by an active storm track in the eastern half of the country, running from the western Gulf of Mexico to the northeast, across the Virginias, and across interior New York State and New England. The deep monsoonal moisture that was over the area for most of the month started to dry out during the last week of the month under a drier upper air pattern. Discover our growing collection of curated stories on Washington State. The last time back-to-back Octobers' were BELOW normal was back in the 1980's when there was a string of SEVEN straight BELOW normal Octobers' from 1980 to 1986. account_box Log in person_add Join settings Settings Sensor Network Maps & Radar Severe Weather News & Blogs Mobile Apps Historical Weather star 36.91 N, 111.46 W Thanks to the new warmer 30-year climate normals, which went into effect last year, the average yearly temperature this year through the end of March is below normal although it was warmer than two years ago (56.8 vs 56.5). A record cool high temperature was set on the 24th with a high of 67 breaking the record of 68 from 1936 & 1978. While its critics say its weather predictions are essentially a flip of the coin, Geiger said in general he has been told the forecasts are about 80% accurate and are especially on target when it comes to winter forecasts. You also get the member section, which has controllable models like rain, wind, snow, in high resolution along with a GPS feature which is updated when an event is in the area Southern Arizona is a mixed bag in the winter sometimes you can get a nice, mild winter or a chilly, snowy one! He also said that in its more than 200 years of printing, only seven people have done the weather, with each working for about 30 or 40 years andthey have applied that sameformula. In long range forecast, Los Angeles is used as a base. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration The forecast for precipitation is a 49% chance that they will be up below normal and a 18% chance that they will end up above normal. US Dept of Commerce READ MORE Monday, March 28, 2022 Flagstaff Weather -- March 28, 2022 With that being said, the colder than normal temperatures are already being felt in both regions. While this isn't always the case every time La Nia is present, it is representative of the average impacts. Detailed Weather Forecast for February 8 in Az Zubayr, Mufazat al Barah, Iraq - temperature, wind, atmospheric pressure, humidity and precipitations - World-Weather.info . In northern Arizona, its snowy and chilly, though usually still quite dry. Nov. 17, 2022 Finally. The forecast for precipitation is a 36% chance that they will be above normal and a 31% chance that they will end up below normal. Weekly sea-surface temperature anomalies in degrees Celsius from early Sept. through early Oct. 2022. Winter temperatures are once again expected to be split between a warmer than average South and colder than average North, with colder risks in parts of the East. Even though our winter is forecast to be on the mild side, it won't be without a few cold spells. Its the best time of year to visit if youre a fan of hiking, for example. Visit the Farmers Almanac website or Facebook page to learn more about the forecast. Last winter, Boston finished the season with. The average yearly temperature through the end of November of 72.9 ranks as the 11th warmest on record. But when will it really start? Expect snowy days, but not as many as we usually see (which isn't great for this whole drought situation we're in). The International airport, which is the official recording spot in Tucson, recorded only 0.19". This cold front brought a cooler air mass with morning lows on the 25th being in the upper 30's to mid 40's. La Nia - the periodic cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean waters - is in play as one of the primary drivers for the winter outlook once again this year. Two were for record highs and three were for record warm low temperatures and all of them occurred in December. Rainfall at the Tucson International airport, the official location in Tucson, of 0.90" is just over 2" below normal and ranks as the 7th driest January through June period on record. Our weather forecast can give you a great sense of what weather to expect in Arizona in February 2024.. Please try another search. Over the last 14 days there was only one day that was above normal. The International airport, which is the official recording spot in Tucson, recorded a trace of rain which is well below normal and ranks as the 16th driest November on record. The states climate is varied and unique, featuring many different biomes and environments. The February outlook for the area, issued by the Climate Prediction Center on January 31st, called for a 47% chance that temperatures would be above normal & 20% chance that temperatures would be below normal. Not all risky days will have rain/snow. 12News+ showcases live video throughout the day for breaking news, local news, weather and even an occasional moment of Zen showcasing breathtaking sights from across Arizona. Winter in Arizona is always a mixed bag. Fall was dry with above normal rainfall returning to the area during December. No blocking means that we will continue to get the colder air out of the west in both regions of Southern California and Arizona, but it also means much drier conditions. Please try another search. Rainfall amounts, using several sources like rainlog.org, the Pima County Regional Flood Control District gages and CoCoRaHS, were mostly less than a tenth an inch /0.10"/ with localized totals up to a third of an inch /0.33"/, especially near Vail and on the northwest side of the metro area. The La Nia weather phenomenon is expected to extend through winter for the third year in a row, bringing below-average rain and snow and above-average temperatures. There were six days of triple digit high temperatures which is slightly above normal. The International airport, which is the official recording spot in Tucson, recorded just over a half an inch /0.53"/. If you are NOT receiving the e-mails and are a full member, your account is either expired or you need to troubleshoot. Rainfall occurred across the metro area over three time periods during the month. Temperature extremes for the month ranged from a high of 95 on the 26th to a low of 33 on the 8th. How do you feel about the upcoming milder, drier (especially drier than this last monsoon season, hoo boy) winter we might have?